Lowering the Undercount

Key Facts & Trends

Accuracy has always been critical to the success of the decennial census.  In recent years those most at risk of being undercounted are young children, African-American males, recent immigrants, renters and persons living in large households.

  • During the 2000 Census considerable progress was made in reducing the size of the undercount.  The dramatic disparity in undercount between majority/minority and economic groups that occurred in the 1990 was largely eliminated, but those gains were offset in part by a larger overcount of white, non-Hispanic Americans.
  • The Bureau of the Census reports that the undercount of African-Americans was cut to less than two percent (1.84 percent) in Census 2000, compared to an undercount of 4.57 percent in 1990.  The undercount of Hispanics was reduced from 4.99 percent in 1990 to .71 percent in 2000.  The undercount of American Indians on reservations was cut from 12.22 percent to less than one percent.
  • One of the keys to the success of the 2000 Census was the Partnership Program.  In preparation for the 2000 Census, the U.S. Bureau of the Census invested $142.9 million on Partnership activities between October 1997 and September 2000. The Partnership program enabled Census staff to work closely with state, local and tribal governments and community-based non-profits and business to help improve the response rate.
  • The Administration did not request any funding for the Partnership program for FY2008.  In December of 2007, Congress appropriated $9 million for the Partnership in 2008, $4 million less than the amount approved by the House earlier in the year.  Underfunding of the Partnership could hurt state and local effforts aimed at reducing the size of the undercount in their communities.
     
     

Policy Implications

Past results do not guarantee future success. While the 2000 Census dramatically reduced the size of the undercount, the success of the 2010 Census is likely to hinge on a successful “dress rehearsal” and early and adequate funding of the Partnership Program.

  • The Commerce Department operated for several weeks in the fall of 2007 under a Continuing Resolution that funded the Department at FY2007 levels, far below the levels requested by the Administration.  As a result, plans to conduct a “dress rehearsal” in April of 2008 have been pushed back until May or June of 2008.  The "dress rehearsal" will test the new systems and procedures designed for the 2010 Census.

  • If Congress does not appropriate funding for the Partnership Program for the current fiscal year (October 1, 2007—September 30, 2008), its start will be delayed by a whole year in comparison to the 2000 Census.
  • If funding for the Partnership Program is delayed or reduced, it may be difficult to maintain the gains made in the 2000 Census. The burden of assuring an accurate count will fall more heavily on state and local governments and organizations.