Major Issues: 300 Million Americans and Counting
300 Million Americans and Counting
Two-hundred and thirty-one years after its birth, America is still growing. In 1969, America’s population passed the 200 million mark. In 2006 it passed the 300 million mark, and if current projections prove accurate, it will reach 400 million in about 35 years. While the population of many European and East Asian nations are stabilizing, America’s population growth shows no sign of slowing down. In fact, the U.S. is the fastest growing industrial nation in the world today.
In 1969, after America crossed the 200 million mark, President Richard Nixon and Congress appointed a Commission on Population Growth and the American Future. The report, issued in 1972, was prescient. It said immigration would impact U.S. population growth significantly by 2000 -- and it has. It warned of urban sprawl and predicted that 85 percent of Americans would live in urban areas by 2000 -- 79 percent did. It warned that there would be a variety of environmental and social challenges associated with continued population growth and there have been.
This time around, when America’s population passed the 300 million mark in 2006, no commission was appointed. While the milestone generated a spate of news stories, concerns about population growth appear to have diminished. Many, in fact, view continued U.S. population growth as an overwhelmingly positive development, particularly for the economy. But while immigration and population growth may help to ease anticipated labor shortages in the next two decades, the long-term implications of projected U.S. population growth deserve serious attention.
Population growth affects air, water, food, economy, energy, living standards, and social services. Some aspects of growth are unquestionably positive, but many are negative, such as environmental damage, sprawl, and resource scarcity. We might mitigate some of those consequences, including some of the environmental impacts, but ultimately we must confront the big question: Are there physical or practical limits to U.S. population growth? How far and fast can America’s population grow before population growth is no longer sustainable?
America’s population is not only growing, its demographic profile is changing. With the decline in fertility rates and mortality rates and the aging of America’s baby boomer generation, America is getting older. Today, 12.5 percent of Americas are age 65 or older; by 2030 it will be almost 20 percent. For decades now, economists have warned that the retirement of the baby boomer generation could lead to labor shortages, slower growth in employment, and a higher tax burden for working Americans. But the aging of America will also bring benefits, particularly if older Americans remain active in second careers or community affairs.
At the same time, America's ethnic and racial composition is changing. America is becoming more diverse. Historically, diversity has made America stronger and more vibrant, but rapid changes in diversity can also create important social and economic challenges.
Policymakers need to be better informed about U.S. population growth and demographic trends and the challenges they pose. In October of 2006 the Population Resource Center cosponsored a special symposium on “300 Million Americans and Counting.” Today, the Center is expanding on that work by sponsoring additional conferences and briefings on U.S. population changes and their implications for America’s future.
