Population Projections

Key Facts & Trends

The United States is growing faster than any other industrialized country. In 1967 there were 200 million Americans. Last year the U.S. crossed the 300 million mark, and the Census Bureau projects that the population will reach 400 million around 2040 and 420 million by 2050. 

Other key trends: 

  • Fertility has increased. In 1972 the U.S. total fertility rate (TFR))--the estimated number of births that a woman has over her lifetime--was 1.9; today it's 2.1. A preliminary report on birth rates for 2006 indicated that the TFR was above the replacement rate--the level at which a generation can fully replace itself--for the first time since 1971.
  • In 2005, an estimated 14 percent of births were unwanted.
  • Fertility rates vary sharply.  Fertility rates last year were 1.8 per 1000 population for whites; 1.9 for Asians; 2.0 for African-Americans; and 2.8 for Hispanics
  • Immigration is increasing. In 1972, there were 2 new immigrants for every 1000 Americans; in 2007 there are 3.2 immigrants per 1000 population. 
  • There are approximately 37 million foreign-born people in the U.S. today, including 12 million illegal immigrants.
  • Immigration is gradually overtaking fertility as the principal source of U.S. population growth. The Center for Immigration Studies found that if the births that occurred during the 1990s to all immigrant women, including those who arrived prior to 1990, are added to new immigrants, then immigration constituted almost 59 percent of population growth between 1990 and 2000.
  • America is aging.  Today, 12.5 percent of Americas are age 65 or older; by 2030 it will be almost 20 percent. Those over 85 increased by 29 percent between 1990 and 2000.
  • America is becoming increasingly urbanized.  Today, more than three out of four Americans live in an urban or suburban setting. More than half of all Americans live in a metropolitan area with a population greater than one million.  While many cities in the Midwest and the Northeast are losing population, urban growth is very strong in the West, the Southwest and the Southeast.
  • More than half of Americans now living in a suburban area. Between 1970 and 1990, the 100 largest urbanized areas sprawled out over an additional 14,545 square miles.

Policy Implications

Population change has profound implications for America’s future.  Policymakers need to be mindful of the policy implications of population change.

In 1969, shortly after U.S. population passed the 200 million mark, President Nixon appointed a Commission on Population Growth and the American Future. The Commission’s report warned that U.S. population growth would lead to congestion and urban sprawl and pose significant environmental problems. Not only are those challenges still with us but they are intensifying as America moves from the 300 million mark toward the 400 million level.

Other population trends, such as the aging of America, also pose policy challenges.

  • Immigration will help to meet the labor and skill shortages that are anticipated as the baby boom generation begins to retire, but approximately one-third of new immigrants have less than a high school education. 
  • Population growth, paradoxically, is strongest in drought-affected states like Arizona and California. After a decade of drought or near-drought conditions in many parts of the United States, water resources are being depleted and competition among water districts for access to limited supplies is mounting.
  • Population growth will complicate efforts to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and is a factor in most other environmental challenges as well.
  • Concerned about urban sprawl, an increasing number of American cities and counties are seeking to limit or better manage population growth in their communities.  Further U.S. population growth will add to the challenge faced by “smart growth” planners.
  • Immigration-fueled population growth will require expanded government services to meet the health, education and welfare needs of new immigrants and their children.
  • As America “ages,” it will face a number of demographically-related challenges, including potential shortages of skilled and highly experienced workers, rising medical expenditures for care of the elderly, and budgetary strains as the number of workers to retirees falls.
  • Urban sprawl is leading to longer commutes, greater fuel consumption and increased pollution. It’s also raising concerns about “automobile dependency” and the inadequacy of public transportation.