Population and Government Services

Key Facts & Trends

In 2006, U.S. population crossed the 300 million mark.  It is currently projected that the U.S. population will reach 420 million by 2050.  Much of that growth will be derived from immigration.  As America’s population grows in size over the next few decades, it will put new and greater demands on government services.

 

  • The number of foreign-born persons is projected to rise from 31 million in 2000 to 48 million in 2025, and the foreign-born share of the U.S. population is projected to increase from 11 percent to about 14 percent.
  • The Population Reference Bureau (PRB) projects that if net legal and illegal immigration continues at the present level, averaging 820,000 persons per year, first- and second-generation Americans will account for about one-third of the U.S. population in 2025.
  • While one-third of the recently arrived foreign-born in 2005 had at least a college degree, PRB reports that many immigrants have very low levels of educational attainment. In 2005, nearly one-third (32 percent) of the foreign-born had not finished high school—a much higher rate than for U.S.-born adults, only 12 percent of whom had not completed high school.
  • The number of children who are limited-English-proficient (LEP) or English language learners (ELLs) is growing. In the fall of 2004, 5.1 million students (10 percent of the school population) were classified as LEP/ELL, compared to 3.3 million in 1994.
  • In 2005 an estimated 84 percent of the foreign-born population spoke a language other than English at home. Spanish was by far the predominant language used at home. PRB estimates that 1.2 million adults were enrolled in state-administered English as a Second Language (ESL or English Literacy) programs during 2003–2004, but many immigrants are not able to enroll in them.
  • Researchers at the RAND Corporation estimated that undocumented adult immigrants, who make up about 3.2 percent of the population, account for only about 1.5 percent of U.S. medical costs, while non-citizens make up about 20 percent of the 46 million uninsured people in the U.S.
  • According to a study conducted by Minnesota-based insurer Health Partners, the demand for elderly health care services will escalate as America ages; an overall increase in health care costs of 18% is expected by 2050. The study indicated that costs will not increase uniformly across major categories of medical practice.  Spending for kidney disorders is projected to rise by 55 percent and for heart and vascular problems by 44 percent.  On the other hand, per capita costs for post-natal care, chemical dependency and pregnancy/infertility care will actually fall as a result of demographic changes.
     
     
     
     
     
     

Policy Implications

If U.S. population reaches the 420 million mark by 2050, as currently projected, it will greatly increase the demand for health, education and other government services over the next three decades.

  • With an increasing number of children in schools who are LEP/ELL, schools will need to devote more resources to meeting their educational needs.
  • With a large number of immigrants lacking a high school education, federal, state and local government will need to channel more resources into high school equivalency programs and other remedial education programs designed to meet the needs of immigrant populations.
  • With an increasing number of adult immigrants not speaking English, governments at all levels will also need to increase funding for ESL or English Literacy programs and devise means of making it easier for immigrant workers to enroll in these programs.
  • While the federal government will shoulder some of the costs of providing government services to immigrants and their children, states governments will assume a major portion of the costs, particularly for education and health care.
  • Some uninsured immigrants needing emergency treatment qualify for emergency Medicaid coverage. Because hospitals receive no payment for their care, Congress in 2003 Congress authorized $250 million per year for 4 years (starting in 2005) to partially compensate hospitals for treating undocumented immigrants. If the number of uninsured immigrants continues to rise, additional funds will be needed for Medicaid and hospital reimbursement.
  • Changing U.S. demography will dramatically affect the demand for and the supply of medical services. As the demand for medical services rises to meet the needs of an aging population, immigrant workers will likely comprise a higher percentage of the medical workforce, particularly for less-skilled jobs.
  • Population growth also has significant implications for federal representation. While Congress has the authority to increase the number of House districts, it has not done so since 1910.  As a result, the average number of people in a Congressional district has jumped from 210,000 in 1910 to about 920,000 today. Larger districts will make it more difficult for Members of Congress to communicate with their constituents and provide them with constituent services. In some cases, larger districts may also dilute minority representation.