Population and Water

Key Facts & Trends

Rapid population growth, combined with a drought that is nearly a decade long, is putting unprecedented strains on water supplies in the Western United States. But despite problems with water scarcity, the population of many of those Western states is continuing to soar, much of it fueled by immigration. Meanwhile, many experts worry that climate change will make existing drought conditions even worse in the decades ahead.

  • Southern California is experiencing its worst drought in two decades, as water supplies from the Sierra snow pack, the Colorado River, and local aquifers are dropping. Los Angeles is facing its driest year on record and farms in the Central Valley are experiencing significant water shortages.
  • In Arizona, Lake Mead and Lake Powell—two of the largest water reservoirs in the country—are only half full.
  • Severe drought conditions now exist throughout much of the West, the Southwest, the Southeast, and parts of the Midwest.
  • Several Western cities and counties are reaching the point where their residents can no longer be supported by existing water supplies, forcing them to buy water rights from agricultural users.
  • A senior researcher at Columbia University, using advanced computer models, predicts that the Southwest could become a dustbowl by 2050.
  • Despite its water problems, California projects that its population will grow from 35 million today to 60 million by 2050. Arizona, New Mexico and many other water stressed states are expecting similar growth spurts as more immigrants and native-born Americans move to those states.

Policy Implications

Water scarcity combined with population pressure will pose unprecedented challenges for state and local governments in the decades ahead.   

  • In addition to imposing severe water restrictions on residents, many large urban areas will need to compete for water rights with rural areas and agricultural users.
  • As farmers sell off their water rights, agricultural output could suffer, particularly in areas, like California’s Central Valley, that are heavily dependent on irrigation.
  • If drought conditions persist, and climate change forecasts prove accurate, many Western states may be forced to rethink their ‘open door’ policies.
  • Water shortages could potentially limit where people choose to live and the availability of jobs in agriculture and other industries that are heavy consumers of water.