Population growth and other demographic trends are rapidly changing our world and posing a multitude of challenges to policymakers. One of the more daunting challenges is water scarcity. This past month, Jon Gertner wrote a cover story for the Sunday New York Times Magazine [October 21, 2007] entitled, “The Perfect Drought: Will population and climate change leave the West without water? As the title suggests, Gertner paints a very sobering picture of the emerging water crisis in the West. At one point, in recounting a conversation he had with Peter Binney the water manager for Aurora, Colorado, Gertner writes:

One way to view the history of the American West is as a series of important moments in exploration or migration; another is to consider it, as Binney does, in terms of its water. In the 20th century, for example, all of our great dams and reservoirs were built — “heroic man-over-nature” achievements, in Binney’s words, that control floods, store water for droughts, generate vast amounts of hydroelectric power and enable agriculture to flourish in a region where the low annual rainfall otherwise makes it difficult…“They gave us about 40 to 50 years of excess capacity,” Binney says. “Now we’ve gotten to the end of that era.” At this point, every available gallon of the Colorado River has been appropriated by farmers, industries and municipalities. And yet, he pointed out, the region’s population is expected to keep booming. California’s Department of Finance recently predicted that there will be 60 million Californians by midcentury, up from 36 million today. “In Colorado, we’re sitting at a little under five million people now, on our way to eight million people,” Binney said. Western settlers, who apportioned the region’s water long ago, never could have foreseen the thirst of its cities.

I’m no stranger to water issues myself. I worked for several years as legislative director for Rep. Morris K. Udall, the Chairman of the House Interior Committee. Mo devoted much of his life in Congress to bringing Colorado River water to Arizona. Gertner actually interviewed Bradley Udall, Mo’s son, for his article. Bradley Udall is an environmental engineer for the Western Water Assessment. He is quoted as saying “As we move forward all water management actions based on ‘normal’ as defined by the 20th Century will increasingly turn out to be bad bets."

After reading Gertner’s article it’s easy to be despondent about the future of the West. To paraphrase, the ancient Mariner, it sounds like it will be “People, people everywhere and not a drop to drink.” When the aquifers are drawn down and urban usage of water increases despite conservation measures, something will have to give. The first thing to give will likely be farm irrigation. When cities like Las Vegas begin running short of water, they will buy up water rights from the agricultural users. If it comes down to a bidding war between farmers and the casinos, place your bet on the casinos.

But how far will all this go? If the drought continues and the mountain snowpack steadily decreases due to global warming, how many more people can the West sustain before there just isn’t enough water to go around? Almost without exception, the fastest growing areas of the country are those with the worst water problems. In addition to the West, some portions of the Southeast, Georgia in particular, are experiencing severe drought. Without any more rain, Atlanta reportedly could run dry within three months.

Stay tuned.

--Bob Walker, President of the Population Resource Center