The Recession and Reapportionment

The Changing Winds of Congress Seats

The decennial Census results in a once a decade reallocation of political power among and within the states.  Every legislative district is redrawn based upon the new population figures collected by the 2010 Census. This results in one of the most radical peaceful redistribution of political power in the world.  This reallocation of power is driven by internal population migration and the destinations that legal and illegal migrants chose, and the number of people who chose not to relocate.

For the first half of this  decade population projections have indicated that there would be a reallocation of seats in the House of Representatives from the Northeast and Midwest to Southern and Western states reflecting the westward journey of the American people. Projections of reapportionment change are prepared by the Census Bureau on an annual basis. 

In 2005, New York and Ohio were projected to lose 2 seats each while 7 states in the Northeast and Midwest would lose one seat each ( Penn, Mass, Mich, Minn, Iowa, Mo and Ill. ) The states that were to gain in 2005 included Florida and Texas with 3 seats each , Arizona 2 seats and Nevada, Utah and Georgia gaining 1 seat each.  All of the gainers were in the South and the West.  Those states were seeing extraordinary economic growth, rapid housing development and an increasing number of immigrants going to the states.

However, the recession and the collapse of the housing market has resulted in very different international and internal migration patterns in the last two years which may result in fewer congressional changes than anticipated. Fewer immigrants are coming and many fewer people are moving from the Northeast and Midwest. Previous projections of population change assumed that people would continue to move out of sending states (Northeast-Midwest) at the same rate as in the past.  2008 data shows a halt to the exodus from the Northeast and Midwest despite the terrible job market.  Many say that the imploding housing market has made it difficult for people to move to better opportunities.

Texas and Arizona were projected to gain 4 and 2 seats; however, current projections indicate that the rapid decline in internal migration and immigration may result in Texas only gaining 3 seats and Arizona only 1.  Florida has suffered from this recession and current projections are that Florida will only gain one seat after the 2010 Census.  On the other hand New York will only lose 1 seat as a result of the 2010 Census. 

The redistricting within the states will have an equally significant impact upon the composition of Congress. The choice of newcomers about where to live within states influences the allocation of political power.  Metropolitan areas have seen dramatic increases in their populations while rural parts of New York, Pennsylvania, and California have continued to lose population in contrast to the metropolitan areas.  Legal immigrants are attracted to large metropolitan areas which means that New York, Chicago and Los Angles have countered the outflow of native born residents. 

Population tides ebb and flow.  Internal mobility is at a 60 year low and will surely increase after the recession is over.  Whether it will return to the levels of the late 90’s and early 00’s is not known. The Baby Boomers are entering retirement and leaving those age groups when mobility is highest. The changing political spectrum is driven by our population changes and the 2010 Census will document who we are and where we live… and then our political system will begin process of reallocating power to reflect those changes.