India Will Be Larger than China
The US Census Bureau has projected that India will become the most populous country in the world in 2025, surpassing China in size. Different fertility rates is the primary reason that India will surpass China in population. India has a fertility rate of 2.7 births per woman while the Chinese fertility rate is only 1.6, a decrease from 2.2 in 1990. The very low fertility rate in China is the result of the one child family policy, a delay in age at marriage and rapid modernization. China’s population growth has declined to .05 percent annually while India continues to grow at a rate of 1.4 percent annually. The International Data Base projects that China and India currently account for 37% of the world’s 6.8 billion people.
Although fertility rates (the number of children estimated to be born over a woman’s lifetime) continue to fall worldwide, the annual number of births is still rising and projected to peak at 137 million in 2013. Very high birth rates in the 1980s and 1990s resulted in an increase of more than 75 million women in the childbearing ages (20-39) during the last decade. The fertility rate in the developing world is estimated to be 2.7 children per woman, a decline from 3.0 in 2001. As a result the world's population is increasing at more than 75 million each year.
In contrast, women in more developed countries average 1.6 births, well below the number required to replace these children’s parents. Birth numbers in the more developed world have been relatively constant in recent years because both fertility rates and the number of women at peak childbearing ages have remained fairly stable.
The United States has a fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman which is higher than other developed countries. This is a result of higher birthrates among immigrants. The Census Bureau estimates that the United States will have 350 million people by 2025.
Currently, nearly half of the world’s countries or areas have fertility levels that are at or below replacement level. Most of these countries are in Europe but a number are located in Asia, including Singapore, Japan and South Korea. Thirty-two countries in the world — mostly in sub-Saharan Africa — have an estimated lifetime fertility of more than five children per woman.
The 10 most populous countries are a study in contradiction in terms of population growth. Those countries are China, India, United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Russia and Japan. Japan and Russia are losing population; China and Brazil are below replacement fertility while the United States is at replacement. Bangladesh and Indonesia have fertility rates under 3 children per woman although both countries appear to have stalled in their fertility decline. Nigeria has a fertility rate of 5.2 children per woman, a figure that has not changed in five years. Pakistan’s fertility is finally coming down and is just below 4 children per woman. The high fertility among these large countries ensures that world population will continue to grow for many decades, probably surpassing the current projection of 9 billion people.
