450 Million by 2050 ?
The Census Bureau has published new population projections for the United States population through 2050. These projections raise a wide range of issues about the future size of the US population, the age and ethnic composition of that population and the distribution of the population across the country. Immigration is clearly the driving force in our population growth. And the numbers of immigrants who come to the United States is a policy debate than can and should be had.
To arrive at these projections the Bureau makes certain assumptions about the birth, death, and immigration rates. In the current projections, birth and death rates are held constant while the immigration rates are changed. .The new projections use four models of immigration including high, low, constant and zero immigration rates. The constant immigration rates assume that the current rates (approximately 1 million people) will remain while the zero immigration rate demonstrates the impact that immigration is having on US population growth.
Based on these different assumptions, the Bureau projects that the population could grow from the currently estimated 308 million to 399 million people with low rates of immigration to 458 million people with high rates of immigration. Under the lowest projection, the Bureau estimates that the nation will grow by about 30% increasing by 2.25 million people per year. Under the high projection, the nation will add 140 million people, growing at a rate of about 3.5 million people per year. With zero immigration the Bureau projects that the nation will have 322 million people.
The immigrants arriving will change the racial and ethnic composition of the country and somewhere between 2040 and 2050 the country will become a majority-minority country which means that no racial or ethnic group will constitute more than 50 % of the country. The Census Bureau collects information on race and ethnicity. Current national projections are that whites (Hispanic and non-Hispanic white) will be 74 percent of the population while blacks will be 13% and Asians almost 8 percent. However, the Bureau projects that 46 percent of the white population will be non-Hispanic white and 28 percent of the population will be Hispanic who define themselves racially as white, black or other.
If current internal migration trends continue, the south and west will continue to increase their proportion of the nation’s population at the expense of the North and Midwest. However, the West has severe water challenges which may not enable that region of the country to accommodate all of the people who are moving there.
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Despite the debate that will rage next year about immigration reform, it probably will not include a discussion of what size we want the United States to be, how fast should we get there and how should we plan to accommodate between 100 and 150 million additional people. There will be no discussion of he impact of that many additional people on our roads, our schools, our carbon emissions, or our democratic institutions. Population growth is not a topic in the immigration debate, despite the fact that immigration policy will determine the future size, composition, age structure and population distribution of our nation. Shouldn’t we have that discussion? .
