THE NEW AMERICA
The Census Bureau estimates that the 2010 Census will find that Hispanics have become the largest minority group in the United States, surpassing the black population who have historically been the largest minority group. The combination of legal and illegal immigration and high birth rates among a young population will result in almost 16% of residents of the United States identifying themselves as Hispanic compared to 13.4% for blacks. Hispanic refers to ethnicity rather than race and both are self declared on the Census.
In the same report the Bureau projected that that by 2050 the nation will have no majority population. Non -Hispanic whites will be 46% of the population while Hispanics will be 29 percent and blacks 16%. Looking at young children in the United States provides a portrait of our future. According to Bill Frey, a demographer at Brookings Insitute, the “Latinisation" of America is the most important demographic change in the 21st Century.
Currently white children are already a minority in 31 of America's large metropolitan areas and according to Census projections non-Hispanic whites will become a minority in preschool by 2012 and in the national population by 2042. Minority students are expected to exceed 50 percent of public school enrollment by 2020. In Texas, 51 percent of the births in 2008 were to Hispanic women although they were only 42% of the women of child bearing age ( 15-44) .
The Southern Education Foundation reported that the South had become the first region in the country where more than half of public students are poor and more than half are members of minorities. Four of the 15 states in the report - Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas - had a majority of both low-income and minority pupils. In contrast to the growing diverse young population, 83% of the population over 50 define themselves as white.. and 75% define themselves as non-Hispanic white.
These changes will present the nation with several public policy challenges including addressing the educational challenge of a multi-cultural society, meeting the public infrastructure demands of an almost 50 percent increase in US population, reshaping our employment practices to embrace the 21st century workforce and addressing the demanding communication challenges between an increasingly diverse younger population and an older ethnically homogeneous population. The nation's history of racism and "classism" will overlay and influence many of our responses.
In the next weeks I will look at the demographic components of the challenges the nation faces. It is important, in light of our past history with racial and economic differences, that we include them openly in the discussions as we struggle to prepare our nation for the 21st Century. Ellis Cose has a very timely article in January 11 edition of Newsweek about how America redefines ethnicity. He referred to a book by Karen Brodkin Sacks entitled “ How Did Jews Become White Folks?” which was about how Euro-ethnics become white and middle class. In this day of political correctness and ethnic politics will that be possible again?. Our future may depend upon it.
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