Notes on Two Asian Population

 South Korea and China have similar demographic challenges despite the difference in the population size of the countries.  China has between 1.3 and 1.5 billion people while South Korea has 49 million. Almost 80% of the South Korean population lives in urban areas compared to only 46% of the Chinese. Both countries are challenged with low fertility rates, a rapidly aging population as a result of low fertility, and a growing sex imbalance because of a very strong son preference.

Both countries have very low fertility rates… South Korea’s fertility rate is 1.19, one of the lowest in the world and China’s is estimated to be 1.72.  These rates are extraordinary because of the dramatic decline in fertility achieved in both countries. In 1970, South Korea’s fertility rate was 4.5 children and China’s was 5.6 children per woman per life time.

These declines were achieved by very different government policies. China has an aggressive and state implemented one-child policy which was adopted in 1978.  Low-fertility in South Korea is a result of an aggressive educational and service program on part of the government.  In 1990 men who had vasectomies were exempt from military service in South Korea.

Both countries rely heavily on abortion (to reduce the fertility rate) which does not have the religious or emotional significance that it does in the United States. The aggressive low-fertility policies and the use of abortion to achieve those policies has resulted in a growing sex imbalance in both countries and a increasing aging population.

The latest figures from China show that for every 100 girls born in China, 119 boys are born..  Current estimates are that the sex ratio at birth is 107 across the world wide because of sex-selected abortion and infanticide rather than the normal ratio of 105 boys for every 100 girls. In Korea, the sex ratio is estimated to be 109. At third birth, the sex ratio is 128.  These ratios are particularly true in the rural areas which are rapidly losing population as more people move to urban areas.  Men in the rural areas of both China and South Korea are having a difficult time finding wives. South Koreans are finding brides from across Asia.  In China, there is an increase in kidnapping of women and forced marriage. However, the shortage of women of marriageable age does not appear to have increased the desire for girl children in these countries. 

Low fertility rates and dramatically improving health care has resulted in a rapidly aging population in both countries.  It is said that China will get old before it will become wealthy.  In 2000, 10% of the Chinese population was over 60 but by 2050 this will grow to 27%. In South Korea, the change will be even more dramatic if current fertility trends continue. South Korea population over 60 will grow from 15% in 2000  to 37% in 2050.  In contrast the population over 60 in the US is projected to grow from 16% to 21% during the same time period. 

Rapid population change, whether it is high rates of growth due to fertility or immigration or a rapidly aging population due to very low fertility, causes economic, political and social disruption.  Institutions, cultural norms and economic patterns designed for one population age structure have difficulty meeting the needs of a different age structure. These dramatic and rapid changes make it difficult for a society to adjust.  Adding to the challenge is that few governments or societies are willing to admit to that the population is changing.  They seem to believe  that  something will happen to change the population dynamic back to the familiar one.