Friday, March 28. 2008The Rising Demand for Family Planning ServicesThe Population Reference Bureau this week has released an important new data sheet Family Planning Worldwide 2008 that looks at the growing demand for family planning services. Looking at two key factors—the growing number of young people entering their childbearing ages and the increased usage of contraceptives—the data sheet projects that there will be a “huge increase” in demand for family planning services in the years ahead. PRB’s report cites two reasons:
With Congress preparing to debate the level of funding for family planning and reproductive services in FY2009, this is an extraordinarily timely and valuable report. Congratulations to Donna Clifton, Toshiko Kaneda and Lori Ashford, who prepared the new data sheet for PRB. Friday, March 28. 20082050: Meeting The Energy ChallengeThe “limits to growth” question is receiving a lot of attention this week. On Monday, the Wall Street Journal had a front-page feature length story (“New Limits to Growth Revive Malthusian Fears”) that looked at a number of possible resource constraints, including water and food. Today, Andrew Revkin of the New York Times writes in his blog (Dot Planet) about an eye-opening presentation made by Dr. Daniel G. Nocera at the first Aspen Environment Forum this week in Colorado. A professor of energy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dr. Nocera talked about the energy choices we face, if we don’t develop far more efficient solar technologies. As Revkin reports:
Revkin blog post is entitled, “All Energy Roads Lead to the Sun.” If so, let’s hope that there aren’t too many bumps, detours and tolls on all those roads. Thursday, March 27. 2008Desperate times...Rice is nice...but desperate times require desperate measures. The Economist this week reports (“Empty Bowls, Stomachs and Pockets”) that:
And that’s not the half of it. With the price of premium Thai rice jumping by nearly 30 percent in the past month and further prices increases expected, reports of rice banditry and hoarding are soaring in Thailand and other countries. As harvest times nears in many areas, rice producers and transporters are hiring armed guards. All across Southern Asia there is a mad scramble to guard and lock in supplies. Cambodia this week suspended rice exports for two months. Several major rice exporting countries have already done so. The Philippines recently signed an agreement with Vietnam to guarantee future shipments, but The Economist describes the agreement as “more of a face-saving measure than a firm pledge.” And now it appears that the government of the Philippines is appealing to a higher authority for help. A news report ("Arroyo seeks divine help to fight high oil, rice prices") this week from the Philippines indicates that President Arroyo visited a holy site and asked for a miracle to help feed the Philippines and the rest of the world. With rice inventories at near record lows and rice exporting countries limiting rice exports, it may, in fact, take a miracle to feed the world’s appetite for rice. About half the world’s population depends on rice as a staple. And with rice exports accounting for only 7 percent of world rice production, major rice importing countries like Indonesia and The Philippines are justifiably worried. According to a report from India News “rice yields in the Philippines are nearly double those of Thailand, but production is not keeping up with rising demand." The story quotes Robert Zeigler, the President of the International Rice Research Institute, as saying that in The Philippines, as in Indonesia, "there is just not enough land."
After reading the quote from Zeigler, I went to the IRRI’s website for more information. On the homepage there is a world population counter ominously ticking away. Underneath is a counter measuring the number of productive hectares devoted to rice production, but the number is not rising…it’s slowly decreasing. Monday, March 24. 2008When the ABA talks...It’s probably safe to say that the American Bakers Association (ABA) does not command the same amount of attention in this town as does the American Bankers Association, so it should come as little surprise that the ABA’s recent “march” on Washington failed to gather much attention. Still, for all those who follow the food crisis, it’s worth listening to what the ABA has to say. With the price of a load of bread now achieving parity with the price of a gallon of gasoline, the bakers of America are worried about the “wheat crisis.” During their March 12th “march” on Washington, the bakers stopped just short of calling for restrictions on grain exports, urging instead a “USDA review of wheat export policies in light of the new market dynamics.” American bakers, of course, are not the only people sounding the alarm. In China, there appears to be growing concern and debate about the size of country’s grain reserves. A news report yesterday quoted Premier Wen Jiabao as saying that China's current grain reserves are between 150 million tonnes to 200 million tonnes, adding "we are confident in curbing overly fast price rises". But Beijing News quoted Yuan Longping, a top rice scientist and a Chinese government advisor, as saying that some local grain reserves are actually empty, suggesting that Chinese grain reserves may be overstated. But if there is a grain crisis, let’s remember it’s a global problem. A few weeks ago, the New York Times, ran a feature story (“A Global Need for Grain That Farms Can ’t Fill”) that warned:
The ABA notwithstanding, it’s probably not a good idea for the U.S. to impose grain restrictions or embargoes in the interest of keeping U.S. bread prices low. Several other major grain exporters, including China, have already announced export restrictions, but if the current grain crisis takes another turn for the worst, a wave of grain embargoes could be the worst possible reaction. For the world’s poor who survive on less than $2 a day and happen to live in a grain-importing country, it could spell disaster. Better that the price of bread rise in the U.S. than to deny bread to the world’s poorest and hungriest. Friday, March 21. 2008"Not a short-term cycle issue..."Danny Leipziger, the World Bank's vice president for poverty reduction and economic management, told Reuters, yesterday that the sharp hike in world oil and food prices is “not a short-term cycle issue.” Adding the World Bank to the growing chorus of international agencies voicing concern about the emerging food crisis, Leipziger was quoted as saying:
Leipziger expressed concern about 30 to 40 developing nations that could be severely impacted by rising food costs. He said, “Particularly in countries that have made progress in terms of poverty reduction, we don't want to see this crisis put people back and undo the progress that has been made.” Despite the very vocal concerns now being expressed about the food crisis by UN agencies, including WFP and FAO, I do have to wonder how many people on Capitol Hill are really listening. Now, if we could only tie it to the sub-prime mortage crisis....
Thursday, March 20. 2008What's the Problem?In the past few days, global commodity prices for oil, grain and other commodities have retreated from their new record highs. The price of oil, which reached a new record of $111.80 a barrel on Monday dropped below $100 a barrel this morning. Similarly, prices for wheat and soybeans have also fallen in the past few days. If the U.S. has fallen into a recession and the global economy slows down, commodity prices are likely to fall even further in the weeks and months ahead. In times past, economic downturns have always cooled off commodity prices, but until this week global commodity prices have appeared to defy economic “gravity”, by rising at a time when demand should be falling. Commodity prices have risen so far and so fast in the past year that some analysts are worried that demand is confronting an inelastic supply curve, meaning that suppliers simply can’t keep up with rising demand. Oil producers, in other words, simply cannot—in the short-term at least—produce any more oil. Farmers—despite record grain prices last year—cannot boost grain production fast enough in 2008 to meet rising consumer demand. A growing number of analysts, in fact, fear that—unless there is a major economic downturn—demand for oil, grain and other commodities will continue to outpace supply for years to come, leading to higher and higher prices and a growing risk that the world’s poor will not be able to keep up. If demand for commodities is growing too fast, what’s the problem? Is it global population growth? Or is it rising living standards? Moises Naim, the editor in chief of Foreign Policy, wrote a column this month (“Can the World Afford a Middle Class?”) that explores this question:
Naim says that this rising middle class is feeding the world’s appetite for fuel and meat, which, in turn, is putting pressure on the world grain markets, as more and more grain is being used to produce food or feed cattle. He warns that this competition for resources will lead to “dislocations” that are “painful and difficult to predict.” He concludes:
Naim’s article is a valuable contribution to the debate about global resources and possible “limits to growth.” It’s a debate that policymakers in Washington and around the world should be having…right now. My fear, however, is that a global economic downturn will eclipse this debate. Commodity prices will fall and policymakers will assume that global resources are still limitless and the potential for growth still unlimited. Then, a year or two from now, when the global economy recovers and commodity prices resume their meteoric rise, policymakers will scratch their collective heads and ask “What’s the problem?” Thursday, March 13. 2008'Birth Dearth' Dividend?It’s often assumed or asserted that population growth is critical to maintaining economic prosperity. Countries with shrinking populations are supposed to be headed towards economic malaise. Maybe not, according to an article in the March 13th edition of The Economist. It turns out that over the past five years, at least, growth in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has actually been higher in some ‘birth dearth’ countries than in some countries whose populations are still expanding:
The article even looks at the track record of countries like Australia and Brazil, and finds that they trail both Japan and Russia (another ‘birth dearth’ country).
The economic disparities observed by The Economist don’t quite prove that “birth dearth” countries fare better—in per capita GDP—than countries with growing populations. Many other factors—other than population growth rates--could explain why standards of living are rising faster in Japan and Russia than in countries like the U.S. and Australia. Russian living standards, for example, have benefited mightily from rising oil prices. In addition, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Japan and Russia may yet fall behind in per capita GDP. Still, it does call the conventional wisdom into question. There may, or may not, be a “birth dearth” dividend, but the numbers cited by the article do suggest that declining populations are not necessarily doomed to economic stagnation, as many have suggested. More research please. Tuesday, March 11. 2008Suddenly it's a Food Crisis
For any newspaper reporter wanting to do a feature story on soaring food prices, there is a large and growing number of angles to cover: angry food protests, major grain exporting nations limiting their grain exports, new commodity prices records, soaring production costs, the diversion of farmland to biomass production, pleas for more international food aid, the plight of the urban poor in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, and growing fears of political destabilization in many parts of the world. But, if it is a global food crisis, you could hardly tell it by following the presidential race or the debate in Congress. It may not be a conspiracy of silence, but it’s a testament to how far removed America and its leaders are from the problems that afflict most of the world. Americans live so far up the food chain that soaring costs of staples like flour and rice, barely registers with the average household. Or sure, American are concerned that food prices have gone up 5-6 percent in the past year, but that’s nothing compared to the food inflation faced by those living overseas on less than $2 a day. When the price of flour doubles, it doesn’t set off any alarm bells in U.S. homes, nothing compared to the level of concern registered in Morocco, Jordan or Nigeria. Americans, of course, will not be untouched by a global food crisis should one be around the corner. If population pressures, changing diets, and the growing demand for biomass are outstripping our ability to ramp up food production, there is an ultimate price to be paid. And it’s not just higher gas prices or food bills for American consumers. A genuine food crisis would be very destabilizing for grain-importing countries like Afghanistan, Egypt, Jordan, and the Philippines that have large populations already struggling with food costs. Pakistan is already on the verge of crisis. If U.S. foreign policy makers are not concerned about the impact of a food crisis on global stability, they ought to be. And so should the average American. Friday, March 7. 2008Feeding the Urban PoorAt a news conference in late February, Hania Zlotnik, head of the U.N. Population Division, unveiled the 2007 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects, which indicated that half the world's population will live in urban areas by the end of 2008 and about 70 percent will be urban dwellers by 2050. It’s hoped, of course, that urbanization will lead to improved living standards in Asia and Africa, where urbanization is spreading most rapidly. It’s certainly easier and more cost effective to deliver medical and other vital services to urban populations, but urbanization has its own set of potential problems, including crime, unemployment, and the rapid spread of communicable diseases. One potential downside of urbanization that is often overlooked is that the urban poor are at the mercy of food prices. Poor farmers, too, can go hungry due to drought or other setbacks, but they are often removed from the global economy. When Thai rice prices spike above $500 a ton as they did this week, many poor farmers actually benefit, but not the urban poor. In the Philippines this week, World Food Program Country Director Valerie Guarnieri warned that due to rising grain prices, the government and international agencies may have to boost food aid to the poor. The Manila Times article also said that local officials are expressing concerns:
During the past several months, protests over rising food prices have broken out in numerous cities in Asia and Africa. Last year, when corn prices spiked, there were protests over the costs of corn tortillas in Mexico City. Earlier this week, the European Union announced its biggest-ever food aid package – €160 million ($243 million) – to help relieve hunger in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Meanwhile, the World Food Programme announced that between now and mid-2008, WFP will provide food to 2.5 million people in Afghanistan because they can no longer afford to buy wheat. Wednesday, March 5. 2008Are Changes Coming in China's One-Child Policy?Ch Wu Jianmin, a spokesman for the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, an advisory body to China’s parliament, created an international stir earlier this week when he announced that China might consider changes to its one-child policy. Since then Zhang Weiqing, the top official in charge of family planning, has denied the rumors, telling a Chinese news source that “Changes to the family planning policy now could lead to population rises, posing higher pressure on China's future development." But, as Robert Engelman noted in a recent blog post for Worldwatch, a change in China’s one-child policy might not lead to a major surge in population growth. The number of children desired by Chinese couples has almost certainly declined in the years since the policy was first instituted. Without coercion, fertility rates in other parts of East Asia have fallen dramatically in recent decades; couples in China today might also desire much smaller families. As Engelman observes in his posting:
As Engelman notes, “Chinese women and couples undoubtedly want the same high-quality health care and contraceptive options that women do elsewhere in the world. Whether an end to global population growth is imminent has much more to do with policies in all countries that help people reach those aspirations than with policies in any one country…” |
CalendarQuicksearchFeedsPopulation Media Center (PMC) BlogU.S. population to hit 1 billion by 2100 Wednesday, July 23. 2008 40 years from global catastrophe Tuesday, July 22. 2008 HHS Moves to Define Contraception as Abortion Monday, July 21. 2008 Dot Earth, Andrew Revkin, New York TimesHurricane Dolly Strengthening as It Reaches Texas Wednesday, July 23. 2008 Hurricane Dolly, a Rainmaker, Targets Border Tuesday, July 22. 2008 Report: World Bank Still Not Lending With Environment (and Disasters) in Mind Tuesday, July 22. 2008 Sustainable Population - New England Coalition for Sustainable PopulationWorld Population Day Friday, July 11. 2008 Uganda Dire Sunday, July 6. 2008 Treading on A Taboo Thursday, June 26. 2008 Center for Global DevelopmentPopulation Action InternationalCaucus for Evidence-Based Prevention Thursday, July 17. 2008 More Leaders Agree: Population is a Critical Humanitarian Issue Wednesday, July 16. 2008 World Population Day Congressional Briefing Tuesday, July 15. 2008 New ScientistLonesome no longer? Wednesday, July 23. 2008 Why it won't be a green Olympics Monday, July 21. 2008 Why should Zimbabwe's government profit from ivory? Wednesday, July 16. 2008 ReutersCalifornia ports’ emissions plan: Full steam ahead! Wednesday, July 23. 2008 “Lonesome George” may cheat extinction Tuesday, July 22. 2008 Gore vs. Pickens: who’s got the right plan? Monday, July 21. 2008 |
