If there is a ground zero to the food crisis, it’s probably in the Philippines. Concern is mounting that the Philippines will not be able to import enough rice this year and experts—inside and outside the Philippines—are warning that major food riots could erupt as a result of the shortfall.

Productivity in the rice fields is very high, but farmland is increasingly scarce in the Philippines. As a result, the Philippines typically imports about 15 percent of its rice needs, but it’s getting more and more difficult to buy rice in the global marketplace.  Four of the major rice producers—Egypt, India, Pakistan, and Vietnam—have imposed export restrictions this year, and rice prices are skyrocketing. In response to the food shortage, the government recently imposed a temporary ban on the conversion of farmland for property development.

It’s against that backdrop that the government of the Philippines announced today that its population reached 88.57 million last August, up from 76.5 million in 2000, the government.  The Reuter news story reports that:

The country's top economic planner said population control policies needed to be reviewed, but promoting artificial birth control, anathema to the Church, is not a likely option.

"The population is increasing and it means that government has to more vigorously implement its population policy, which is responsible parenthood and the advocacy for natural family planning," Economic Planning Secretary Augusto Santos told Reuters. "I think the population commission will have to review its policies," he added. "We really need greater efforts. It means we have to work harder to make the economy function more properly and more smoothly."

Fertility rates have fallen significantly in many parts of Southeast Asia—including Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia—but the total fertility rate (TFR) in the Philippines (3.4) is third highest in the region.  The National Statistics Office indicates, however, that the annual population growth rate is declining.  It reported today that it was 2.04 percent between 2000 and 2007, lower than the average annual growth of 2.34 percent between 1990 and 2000.

The Reuter’s article noted, however, that the government’s population policy has its critics:

"I think it is a significant drop," said Benjamin de Leon, President of the Forum for Family Planning and Development Inc. "But I still have to see in this administration a policy that informs people of the need to space their children, the need to plan their families."
Solita Monsod, professor of economics at the University of the Philippines, said the problem did not lie with the Church. She said most Filipinos wanted to regulate their families and providing access to information and funding for civil service groups involved in family planning was key.

"Survey after survey has shown that when it comes to family planning, the Church does not make a difference," Monsod said. "The people don't have access. Give them what they want and then the population problem will take care of itself."