Yesterday, the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) released its 2008 World Population Data Sheet. Required reading for anyone interested in how population trends are changing our world, this year’s publication focuses renewed attention on the growing “demographic divide” between the rich and poor areas of the world. 

In releasing the report, Bill Butz, PRB’s president, observed that “Nearly all of world population growth is now concentrated in the world’s poor countries.”  Mary Mederios Kent, one of the co-authors of the report, noted that on one side of the “demographic divide” “are mostly poor countries with high birth rates and low life expectancies.  On the other side are mostly wealthy countries with low birth rates and rapid aging.”

The PRB report looked at several population trends.  Highlights include discussion of:

• Increased urbanization:  More than half the world now lives in a city, town or village;
• Education and nutrition:  Mothers in developing countries who have low educational status are more likely to have malnourished children whose growth is stunted.
• Declining fertility rates:  In the past half centuries fertility rates have dropped sharply in many countries, but not all.  In countries like Yemen and Niger women, on average, still have six or more children during their lifetimes.
• World population growth:  Due to high fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia, world population is expected to grow from 6.7 billion in 2008 to 9.3 billion by 2050.

To illustrate the impact of the demographic divide, PRB looked at the demographic profiles of Italy and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), two countries that are very close in terms of population size (60 million and 67 million respectively), but on opposite sides of the “demographic divide.”  Most importantly, 74% percent of children in the DRC are undernourished, compared to less than 2.5 percent in Italy.  Despite high mortality rates, the population of the DRC could nearly triple by 2050, reaching a projected population of 189 million, while Italy’s population in 2050 will remain largely unchanged (62 million).

Numbers alone, of course, do not paint a complete picture of life on the other side of the “demographic divide.”  As it happens, the BBC just completed a short documentary piece (“Why They’re Dying in the Congo”) looking at life in the DRC, where despite the end of a bloody civil war, 45,000 people a month are still dying, the vast majority from conditions like malaria and malnutrition.

Having worked on two presidential campaigns, I know that presidential candidates read voluminous amounts of information in the form of briefing papers, newspapers and the occasional report.  It’s probably safe to assume that PRB’s data sheet will not make it on to McCain or Obama’s reading list. Too bad.  U.S. elections don’t turn on global population trends, but the world does.

The U.S. Census Bureau last week released its latest population projections for 2050. In releasing the new numbers, the Census Bureau noted that, “The nation will be more racially and ethnically diverse, as well as much older, by midcentury.”  It will also be significantly larger.

In summarizing its findings, the Census Bureau reported that:

• Minorities, now roughly one-third of the U.S. population, are expected to become the majority in 2042, with the nation projected to be 54 percent minority in 2050. By 2023, minorities will comprise more than half of all children.
• In 2030, when all of the baby boomers will be 65 and older, nearly one in five U.S. residents is expected to be 65 and older. This age group is projected to increase to 88.5 million in 2050, more than doubling the number in 2008 (38.7 million).
• Similarly, the 85 and older population is expected to more than triple, from 5.4 million to 19 million between 2008 and 2050.

Other findings, as summarized by the Census Bureau, include:

• By 2050, the minority population — everyone except for non-Hispanic, single-race whites — is projected to be 235.7 million.
• The non-Hispanic, single-race white population is projected to be only slightly larger in 2050 (203.3 million) than in 2008 (199.8 million). In fact, this group is projected to lose population in the 2030s and 2040s and comprise 46 percent of the total population in 2050, down from 66 percent in 2008.
• The Hispanic population is projected to nearly triple, from 46.7 million to 132.8 million during the 2008-2050 period. Its share of the nation’s total population.
• The black population is projected to increase from 41.1 million, or 14 percent of the population in 2008, to 65.7 million, or 15 percent in 2050.
• The Asian population is projected to climb from 15.5 million to 40.6 million. Its share of the nation’s population is expected to rise from 5.1 percent to 9.2 percent.
• American Indians and Alaska Natives are projected to rise from 4.9 million to 8.6 million (or from 1.6 to 2 percent of the total population). The Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander population is expected to more than double, from 1.1 million to 2.6 million. The number of people who identify themselves as being of two or more races is projected to more than triple, from 5.2 million to 16.2 million.

Most significantly, perhaps, the report indicates that the U.S. is on track to break the 400 million mark in 2039, just 33 years after the nation’s population passed the 300 million mark.  By 2050, U.S. population is projected to reach 439 million, a jump of more than 40 percent from today’s level (304.8 million).

The percentage of the population in the traditional “working ages” of 18 to 64 is projected to decline, but not as much as many might expect. The percentage is projected to decline from 63 percent in 2008 to 57 percent in 2050.  If life spans continue to expand and people work longer, the percentage of people actually working might be very close to what it is today.

Virtually all of the trends cited above have important implications for policymakers.

A few weeks ago, the Population Resource Center had a roundtable discussion on the issue of rapid population growth and water scarcity in the West.  Our two fastest growing states, Nevada and Arizona, are grappling with severe water shortages that are likely to be made worse by climate change.  California, which is already under a drought emergency, is expected to grow from a population of 37 million today to 60 million by 2050.

Previously in this blog, we have looked at how population trends, particularly the aging of America, are likely to put special demands on the future health care workforce.  Many areas of the country are already suffering from a nursing shortage, and an Institute of Medicine report issued earlier this year warned that too few nurse and doctors are specializing in geriatric care.

Given the importance of demographic trends to America’s future, it’s a shame that the Census Bureau’s release occurred during the August Congressional recess when lawmakers are back in their districts.  Policymakers at all levels, but particularly the federal level, should be more familiar with population trends and what they portend for public policy.

The Beijing Olympics has refocused world attention again on China’s coercive “one-family, one-child” policy. Instituted thirty years ago in a desperate bid to slow China’s burgeoning population, the policy has been widely condemned as an abuse of human rights. But lower fertility rates have contributed, no doubt, to China’s economic miracle, just as they have in other East Asian countries like Japan and South Korea.  It’s difficult to conceive that standards of living in China would be what they are today if fertility rates had remained at or near their historic rates.

Still, despite China’s booming economy, the “one-family, one-child” policy remains highly controversial.  Critics have charged, among other things, that the policy would be harmful to the children.  The July/August issue of Psychology Today takes a new look at the issue (“Plight of the Little Emperors”). The article notes that: 

When China began limiting couples to one child 30 years ago, the policy's most obvious goal was to contain a mushrooming population. For the Chinese people, however, the policy's greater purpose was to turn out a group of young elites who would each enjoy the undivided resources of their whole family—the so-called xiao huangdi, or "little emperors." The plan was to "produce a generation of high-quality children to facilitate China's introduction as a global power," explains Susan Greenhalgh, an expert on the policy. But while these well-educated, driven achievers are fueling the nation's economic boom, their generation has become too modern too quickly, glutted as it is with televisions, access to computers, cash to buy name brands, and the same expectations of middle-class success as Western kids.

Without question, the policy puts extraordinary pressures on the children.  As the article points out:

"In this generation, every child is raised to be at the top," says Vanessa Fong, a Harvard education professor and author of Only Hope: Coming of Age under China's One-Child Policy. "They've worked hard for it, and it's what their parents have focused their lives on. But the problem is that the country can't provide the lifestyle they feel they deserve. Only a few will get it." China's accomplished young elites are celebrated on billboards as the vanguard of the nation, yet they're quickly becoming victims of their own lofty expectations.

Still, the article finds that the psychological harm that flows from being an only child might not be as great as critics claim:

Yet despite the stereotype, the research has revealed no evidence that only kids have more negative traits than their peers with siblings—in China or anywhere else. "The only way only children are reliably different from others is they score slightly higher in academic achievement," explains Toni Falbo, a University of Texas psychology professor who has gathered data on more than 4,000 Chinese only kids. Sure, some little emperors are bratty, but no more than children with siblings.

The biggest problem, perhaps, is that China’s colleges and universities, with the anxious backing of the parents, are cranking out more graduates than the economy can currently absorb:

The number of Chinese college graduates per year has nearly tripled in the last half-decade—from 1.5 million in 2002 to 4.1 million in 2007—which means more than 2 million grads a year end up with expensive diplomas, but no job. With so few top positions available and so many seekers, urban only children must study constantly just to have a shot.

A few months back it suddenly looked like China might change its “one-family, one-child” policy after a high-level Communist Party official said the government was reviewing the policy.  Just as suddenly, a more senior government official squashed the rumor, insisting that no change is anticipated. In the wake of the horrible Sichuan earthquake, the government dropped its "one-child" policy for the parents of children who died or who were disabled or seriously injured.

The great unknown, however, is what would happen to China’s fertility rate if the “one-child” limit was lifted or relaxed for everyone. While there would be some inevitable increase in birth rates, fertility rates might not rise that much.  The total fertility rate in China today ( 1.6) is actually higher than in South Korea (1.1) and Japan (1.3), and only slightly lower than Mongolia’s TFR (2.0). Almost certainly, China's fertility rate would have dropped significantly over the past thirty years, with or without government sanction, as it did in other parts of East Asia.

More, perhaps, than at any other time in human history, population trends are reshaping our world. Whether it’s population growth, population decline, ‘youth bulges’, or aging societies, population matters.  Looking at the world through the population prism gives us a better understanding of recent history and valuable insight into our future, but until recently there has been far too little discussion of population trends and what they mean for U.S. security. 

That may be changing.  In recent months, a growing number of security experts have openly acknowledged the challenges posed by current population trends.

Three months ago, in a speech delivered at Kansas State University, CIA Director General Michael V. Hayden warned that:

Today, there are 6.7 billion people sharing the planet. By mid-century—by mid-century, the best estimates point to a world population of more than 9 billion. That’s a 40 to 45 percent increase—striking enough—but most of that growth is almost certain to occur in countries least able to sustain it, and that will create a situation that will likely fuel instability and extremism—not just in those areas, but beyond them as well.

There are many poor, fragile states where governance is actually difficult today, where populations will grow rapidly: Afghanistan, Liberia, Niger, the Democratic Republic of the Congo. That group—the population is expected to triple by mid-century. The number of people in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Yemen is likely to more than double. Furthermore—just beyond the raw numbers—all those countries will therefore have, as a result of this, a large concentration of young people. If their basic freedoms and basic needs—food, housing, education, employment—are not met, they could be easily attracted to violence, civil unrest, and extremism.

And through the fact of global migration, this impact of rapid population growth in Africa or Southeast Asia and elsewhere is not going to be confined to those places. It will be felt in the developed world as well. Millions of young people from fast-growing, poorly developed countries will emigrate—legally and illegally—in search of economic opportunity, security, or political freedom.

Earlier this month, the Defense Department publicly released its 2008 National Defense Strategy.  Echoing the comments made earlier by the CIA Director, Defense Secretary Robert Gates reported that:

Over the next twenty years physical pressures – population, resource, energy, climatic and environmental – could combine with rapid social, cultural, technological and geopolitical change to create greater uncertainty. This uncertainty is exacerbated by both the unprecedented speed and scale of change, as well as by the unpredictable and complex interaction among the trends themselves. Globalization and growing economic interdependence, while creating new levels of wealth and opportunity, also create a web of interrelated vulnerabilities and spread risks even further, increasing sensitivity to crises and shocks around the globe and generating more uncertainty regarding their speed and effect.

Current defense policy must account for these areas of uncertainty. As we plan, we must take account of the implications of demographic trends, particularly population growth in much of the developing world and the population deficit in much of the developed world. The interaction of these changes with existing and future resource, environmental, and climate pressures may generate new security challenges. Furthermore, as the relative balance of economic and military power between states shifts, some propelled forward by economic development and resource endowment, others held back by physical pressures or economic and political stagnation, new fears and insecurities will arise, presenting new risks for the international community 

Of all the challenges posed by rapid population growth, water scarcity may be the greatest.  Earlier this summer, Dr. Colin Chartres, Director General of the International Water Management Institute, warned that: 

The world’s population is predicted to increase from 6 to 8.5 billion over the next 20-30 years. If people are to be adequately nourished we need to find at least a further 2000 to 3000 cubic kilometers of water for irrigated and rain-fed cropping. This is no easy task as it is about 33% of what is currently used and many countries are already water scarce.

The challenge is made even greater by the fact that many of the countries threatened by water shortages are already heavily dependent on imported food and have rapidly growing populations. The water/food problem is particularly acute in the Middle East, where there has been a spate of recent news reports about the growing water problem.

Jordan, whose population is expected to jump from 5.7 million in 2007 to 9.8 million by 2050, is taking emergency steps to deal with its water shortage.  King Abdullah II recently appointed his brother, Prince Feisal, as chair of a committee to upgrade Jordan's water strategy.  Jordan is ranked by the World Bank as one of the world's 10 most water-deprived nations.

Yemen's population is 23 million now and is growing at 3.2% a year; one of the highest growth rates in the world. Its population is projected to reach 58 million by 2050. In a news report from Yemen this week, Abdussalam al-Faqih, a professor at Ibb University, warned that unless new measures are taken to solve “the twin problems of overpopulation and water source depletion” in the Ibb Governorate, “catastrophic consequences” will take place over the next decade.

Water shortages in the Middle East are already affecting the food situation.  Depletion of underground water aquifers has forced Saudi Arabia to halt most of its grain production.  Other countries, like Kuwait, may be forced to limit use of water for irrigation. The Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR) is recommending that the government consider implementing new technology to improve water storage, including direct injection into reservoirs. The news report noted that:

Much of Kuwait's water is currently obtained from desalinated seawater taken from the Gulf, which is then mixed with around 10% brackish water from the emirate's limited groundwater aquifers to create potable water. However, with a growing population and increasing demands on the water board from new developments such as the planned $132bn Silk City, which is set to house an additional 700,000 people, water security is becoming a major issue for Kuwait. Securing Kuwait's future water supply is likely to require a combination of different approaches. While an increase in storage capacity will be necessary to provide security for a growing population, sourcing fresh supplies will also become a matter of urgency.

In Egypt, where President Hosni Mubarak recently launched a new family planning program, water will play a critical role in handling projected population needs.  A recent Voice of America report indicated that:

Egypt is facing a population boom in its already overcrowded Nile corridor. It has no choice but to move into desert lands and redirect people and agriculture. Over the past 50 years, the country has invested enormous resources to divert water from the Nile  into desert areas.   

The same VOA story quotes Mohamed Farag, who works at the Desert Development Center, a research initiative sponsored by the American University in Cairo, as saying:

Egypt needs to use the desert to take care of the tremendous increase in population. We also need to use the desert to produce food, which we are now importing most of it. We are in a mess!  You see in order for the desert development to be successful, you have to have two things. One, enough water, and two, proper plans to get people convinced they can live there more comfortably and have a good life for themselves and their children.

Over the past half century, an abundance of oil has given an enormous boost to standards of living in the Middle East.  Over the next half century, a scarcity of water, combined with climate change and rapid population growth, threatens to undo much of what has been accomplished.