A few weeks ago, UK Chief Scientific Adviser Professor John Beddington, was quoted in The Guardian as describing the devastating potential of food shortages as an "elephant in the room" on par with climate change. He argues that biofuel diversion (canola or palm oil-derived biodiesel and grain or sugar-derived ethanol) threatens the world’s food production and has the potential to affect the lives of billions of people. Professor Beddington states that it is “very hard to imagine how we can see the world growing enough crops to produce renewable energy and at the same time meet the enormous demand for food. The supply of food really isn't keeping up."
Apparently, the message is getting through. Britain announced yesterday that it was stepping up its use of biofuels. Starting April 15, 2008, 2.5 percent of all gasoline and diesel fuel sold in Britain must be derived from crops.
Meanwhile, the “elephant in the room” is getting larger. A few weeks ago, the New York Times reported that there have been riots over food prices recently in Guinea, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Senegal, Uzbekistan and Yemen. Also, rice export bans by rice-exporting nations like Vietnam, Cambodia, Egypt, and India, have raised world rice prices even more. Rising prices and a growing fear of scarcity have prompted some of the world’s largest rice producers to announce drastic limits on the amount of rice they export. Rice, a staple in the diets of almost half the world’s population, has nearly doubled in price over the last several months. That has stretched the budgets of many poor Asians and stoked fears of civil unrest.
One of the best analyses written in recent months is a report released at the end of last year by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The World Food Situation: New Driving Forces and Required Actions by Joachim von Braun warns that food shortages and high food costs have played a part in tensions and violence around the world in recent months, and the impact of growth, climate change, and biofuels have had an affect on food production and availability. The report makes policy recommendations that it suggests would reduce these potential adverse impacts.
Recent increases in oil prices have hit lower income countries hard, both because of the financial impact of more expensive oil and because of the affect of higher oil prices on imports of basic necessities and raw materials. According to the von Braun report, "Surging demand for feed, food, and fuel have recently led to drastic price increases, which are not likely to fall in the foreseeable future, due to low stocks and slow-growing supplies of agricultural outputs.”
“Economic growth has helped to reduce hunger, particularly when it is equitable," added von Braun, "but unfortunately, growth does not always reach the poorest people."
According to von Braun, developing countries have seen a great deal of economic growth in recent years, which has changed those countries’ consumer preferences and spending habits. Increasing wealth in China and India, for example, has led to consumers eating more meat; the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that Chinese imports of pork will double over the next 10 years. An increase in meat consumption means that more grain is needed to feed farm animals.
Climate change will also have a negative impact on food production, compounding the challenge of meeting global food demand, and potentially exacerbating hunger and malnutrition among the world's poorest people. Global warming is expected to decrease world agricultural output significantly. The impact will be much greater on developing countries, particularly Africa, which is vulnerable to climate change because of its high proportion of low-input, rainfed agriculture.
The IFPRI report argues that investments need to be made to improve agricultural productivity and insurance be made available to compensate those in rural communities who are impacted by weather unsuitable for farming.
