The CDC report showed:

Between 2005 and 2006, the birth rate for teenagers aged 15-19 rose 3 percent, from 40.5 live births per 1,000 females aged 15-19 in 2005 to 41.9 births per 1,000 in 2006. This follows a 14-year downward trend in which the teen birth rate fell by 34 percent from its all-time peak of 61.8 births per 1,000 in 1991.

The largest increases were reported for non-Hispanic black teens, whose overall rate rose 5 percent in 2006. The rate rose 2 percent for Hispanic teens, 3 percent for non-Hispanic white teens, and 4 percent for American Indian teens.

As a result of the increases in the birth rates for women aged 15-44, the total fertility rate—an estimate of the average number of births that a group of women would have over their lifetimes—increased  2 percent in 2006 to 2,101 births per 1,000 women. This is the highest rate since 1971 and the first time since then that the rate was above replacement—the level at which a given generation can replace itself.

The increase in the teenage pregnancy rate is sure to ignite a renewed public debate about the effectiveness of “abstinence only” programs.  While the increase may not indicate a long-term trend, the size of the increase was significant enough to raise legitimate concern.  At the very least, last week’s report served as an important reminder: the battle against unwanted teen pregnancies is far from over. 

The increase in the TFR will probably receive less attention, but it raises important questions regarding about U.S. population growth. It has long been assumed that fertility rates in the U.S. would continue to decline leading to a “birth dearth” and eventual decline of America’s native born population.  But the U.S. reversal may be part of a larger global trend.  While fertility rates in most European nations continue to fall, some European nations—most notably Spain and Italy—have seen an increase in fertility rates in recent years.

Just as importantly, the increase in U.S. fertility rates, combined with current rates of immigration, means that the U.S. will continue to have a population growth rate that is larger than any other industrialized nation.  Last year, the U.S. crossed the 300 million mark. Current projections indicate that the U.S. will reach 420 million by 2050, but if the fertility rate remains above the replacement rate, that number could prove to be a conservative estimate.

The full report on 2006 birth rates is available at www.cdc.gov/nchs