The U.S. Census Bureau last week released its latest population projections for 2050. In releasing the new numbers, the Census Bureau noted that, “The nation will be more racially and ethnically diverse, as well as much older, by midcentury.”  It will also be significantly larger.

In summarizing its findings, the Census Bureau reported that:

• Minorities, now roughly one-third of the U.S. population, are expected to become the majority in 2042, with the nation projected to be 54 percent minority in 2050. By 2023, minorities will comprise more than half of all children.
• In 2030, when all of the baby boomers will be 65 and older, nearly one in five U.S. residents is expected to be 65 and older. This age group is projected to increase to 88.5 million in 2050, more than doubling the number in 2008 (38.7 million).
• Similarly, the 85 and older population is expected to more than triple, from 5.4 million to 19 million between 2008 and 2050.

Other findings, as summarized by the Census Bureau, include:

• By 2050, the minority population — everyone except for non-Hispanic, single-race whites — is projected to be 235.7 million.
• The non-Hispanic, single-race white population is projected to be only slightly larger in 2050 (203.3 million) than in 2008 (199.8 million). In fact, this group is projected to lose population in the 2030s and 2040s and comprise 46 percent of the total population in 2050, down from 66 percent in 2008.
• The Hispanic population is projected to nearly triple, from 46.7 million to 132.8 million during the 2008-2050 period. Its share of the nation’s total population.
• The black population is projected to increase from 41.1 million, or 14 percent of the population in 2008, to 65.7 million, or 15 percent in 2050.
• The Asian population is projected to climb from 15.5 million to 40.6 million. Its share of the nation’s population is expected to rise from 5.1 percent to 9.2 percent.
• American Indians and Alaska Natives are projected to rise from 4.9 million to 8.6 million (or from 1.6 to 2 percent of the total population). The Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander population is expected to more than double, from 1.1 million to 2.6 million. The number of people who identify themselves as being of two or more races is projected to more than triple, from 5.2 million to 16.2 million.

Most significantly, perhaps, the report indicates that the U.S. is on track to break the 400 million mark in 2039, just 33 years after the nation’s population passed the 300 million mark.  By 2050, U.S. population is projected to reach 439 million, a jump of more than 40 percent from today’s level (304.8 million).

The percentage of the population in the traditional “working ages” of 18 to 64 is projected to decline, but not as much as many might expect. The percentage is projected to decline from 63 percent in 2008 to 57 percent in 2050.  If life spans continue to expand and people work longer, the percentage of people actually working might be very close to what it is today.

Virtually all of the trends cited above have important implications for policymakers.

A few weeks ago, the Population Resource Center had a roundtable discussion on the issue of rapid population growth and water scarcity in the West.  Our two fastest growing states, Nevada and Arizona, are grappling with severe water shortages that are likely to be made worse by climate change.  California, which is already under a drought emergency, is expected to grow from a population of 37 million today to 60 million by 2050.

Previously in this blog, we have looked at how population trends, particularly the aging of America, are likely to put special demands on the future health care workforce.  Many areas of the country are already suffering from a nursing shortage, and an Institute of Medicine report issued earlier this year warned that too few nurse and doctors are specializing in geriatric care.

Given the importance of demographic trends to America’s future, it’s a shame that the Census Bureau’s release occurred during the August Congressional recess when lawmakers are back in their districts.  Policymakers at all levels, but particularly the federal level, should be more familiar with population trends and what they portend for public policy.