Last week, I listened to Dr. Jane Goodall as part of the Wilson Center’s “On the Hill” series. While Dr. Goodall is known primarily for her groundbreaking work on chimpanzee behavior in the Gombe Reserve of Tanzania, her discussion focused on the linkages between environmental sustainability, public health, livelihoods development, and the well-being of species.  

Dr. Goodall focused her presentation on TACARE, a flagship program of the Jane Goodall Institute for Wildlife Research, Education, and Conservation. TACARE – or the Lake Tanganyika Catchment Reforestation and Education program --  is an integrated international development program. While leaders in the population studies have yet to determine direct relationships between growth and climate change, Dr. Goodall stated her observations that increasing populations have led to further environmental degradation. As a result, she advocates for localized, integrated solutions. By combining culturally-sensitive conservation techniques with economically sustainable practices and reproductive health services, the Jane Goodall Institute has achieved tremendous success in restoring indigenous forests, stabilizing population growth, and establishing primate well-being. TACARE programs provide microfinance opportunities, infrastructure development funds, tree nurseries, forest reserves, cash crop promotions, water sanitation, public health education, and youth education through JGI’s Roots & Shoots program.

Regarding the role of family planning services, the field staff of the Jane Goodall Institute provides counseling and distributes condoms, oral contraceptives, voluntary sterilization, IUCD, Depo-Provera, and natural methods. Dr. Goodall outlined that when these items were introduced to local communities, men and women welcomed them. However, greater efforts are needed in various African countries, particularly in Uganda, where an average 6.7 children are born to every female of reproductive age.

TACARE is currently funded through the US Agency for International Development. Dr. Goodall optimistically stated that under the current administration, she hopes that development funding agencies will enable NGOs to exercise greater judgement in implementation practices. Rather than having one fund earmarked solely for HIV/AIDS education, Dr. Goodall mentioned the need for development grants to tackle integrated practice at a scaled level.

 For more information on the Jane Goodall Institute’s work, visit www.janegoodall.org

After an exciting week of collaboration with CARE USA, the Population Resource Center is excited to enter a new phase of its development. Robert J. Walker, former President of PRC, began his new role as Executive Vice President of the Population Institute this week. In his place, founder and former President Jane DeLung shall serve as President. We are excited for the new opportunities offered to Bob, and we welcome Jane's return to PRC.

Putting Names to Faces

Aborigines to bear the brunt of climate change

Heightened fears for lowering lands

Paradise Lost: When climate change leaves millions without a home

With headlines like these appearing in global newspapers, the effects of climate change are hitting home – literally. While the 111^th Congress is expected to create a cap-and-trade program to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions over the next 40+ years, media coverage illustrates immediate challenges facing some populations. When Maldives President Mohammed Nasheed announced last November that he planned to invest part of the country’s tourism revenues in securing another homeland for future environmental refugees, climate change suddenly became painfully tangible. The fact that people around the world may lose their homes and livelihoods to sea level changes is for many organizations, a human rights issue.

For some, however, the phenomenon of climate migration may seem far-fetched. Is this really happening? How many people are being affected? Have people already been displaced due to global warming? How many people will be displaced by a slight change in sea level? Where are they located and where are they migrating to? What policy options exist to address climate migration, mitigation and adaptation? Below, I’ve compiled a short series of facts and recommendations on environmental displacement.

How many are being affected?

A 2007 World Bank study identified the relationships between sea level rise (SLR) and its impact on population, and geography. This study does not provide a timescale for SLR, but it does project the percentage of individuals who will be adversely affected by SLR. The effects of sea level rise (SLR), one result of climate change, differ across the globe.

Using 2008 population estimates, one can calculate that a one meter SLR could affect 3.3 million citizens in Latin America and the Caribbean while a five meter SLR potentially impacts 15.5 million people in the same region. In the Middle East & North Africa and East Asia, a SLR of one meter is projected to affect 31.7 million people while a five meter SLR could uproot up to 36 million residents. In South Asia, one of the most populous regions of the world, a one meter SLR could negatively affect 5.8 million people while a five meter SLR could harm as many as 39 million individuals.

How will they be affected?

The shifting of the Earth’s temperature increases vulnerability to natural disaster; food, air, and energy security; the ability to sustain livelihoods, and the establishment of permanent residences.  As a result of unmitigated climate change in the most vulnerable developing countries, agricultural production will likely decline.  Less reliable rainfall will impact planting seasons, crop growth and livestock health.  Flooding will further diminish the quality of already-marginal soil and cause outbreaks of water-borne diseases such as cholera and dysentery.  Longer dry seasons will take a serious toll.  Ongoing population growth, with its increased demand for irrigation and industrial development, will continue to compound the crisis.

Where are they located?

A CARE/UNOCHA 2008 analysis identified Sahelian Africa, the Horn of Africa, Central Africa, Central and South Asia, and Southeast Asia to be particularly vulnerable to disaster in the next 2-3 decades. When overlaying hazard hotspots to areas of high population density, the coastal and mountainous regions of India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Burma, Laos, Indonesia, and China exhibit the greatest risk of disaster to the largest populations of people. When the relationship between risk to drought and presence of sociopolitical conflict is examined, countries in Central and East Africa, Central and South Asia, and Southeast Asia are shown to be at higher risk for climate-induced conflict.

What policy options are under consideration?

Policy recommendations espoused by CARE include

• reducing greenhouse gas emissions on a global scale in order to avoid shooting past any safe emissions scenario and committing future generations to a very different and more dangerous world;
• investing in emergency preparedness and disaster risk reduction;
• helping people get back on their feet after an emergency has been tackled;,
• supporting interventions that address underlying causes of vulnerability, such as detrimental policies and poor governance, social discrimination and degraded ecosystems;
• scaling up funding for adaptation in developing countries; and
• ensuring that adaptation funding reaches the most vulnerable people, which will require systematic identification of socio-economically vulnerable groups; inclusive, participatory and transparent decision making on the design and implementation of adaptation activities; and mechanisms to support community-based adaptation.

In a 2008 presentation by Oliver-Smith, recommended policy considerations include recognizing the legal and economic rights of displaced persons; climate change mitigation and adaptation; the monitoring of areas projected to be affected by SLR; and educating and training resettlement practitioners.

If you are interested in learning more about climate displacement and disaster risks, come join PRC and CARE USA at our upcoming briefing featuring Alex de Sherbinin (CIESIN), Christina Chan (CARE USA), and Cynthia Awuor (CARE International).

Disaster and Displacement: The Human Face of Climate Change

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

2200 Rayburn House Office Building

Washington, DC

2:00pm-3:30pm

Over the last five years, I’ve traveled to India annually for personal and professional reasons. Every year, I notice things changing in the country. As an emerging economy embracing economic liberalization, India has experienced rapid growth in industry, infrastructure, social change, and migration. Changes are also happening with respect to family planning and reproductive health. Just five years ago, the city of Bengaluru displayed no public signs of sex education; today, Kamasutra brand condoms are advertised on national television.

With a population of over one billion and projections predicting that by 2030, India will be even more populous than its neighbor, China, demographic challenges within India are numerous. Last year, a Population Reference Bureau report projected that India’s population could reach the 1.8 billion mark by mid-century and might exceed 2 billion  by 2101, unless fertility rates decline more sharply in Northern India.

Currently, nearly 200 million married couples in India are of reproductive age, yet only over half of them report contraceptive use. Projections indicate that population stabilization can take up to fifty years in states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Coupled with historical stigmas about sex, contraception, domestic violence, son selection, sexual assault and rape, and gender roles, many parts of the country possess few methods for men and women to learn more about voluntary family planning, women’s well-being, and reproductive health in a private, unbiased fashion.

Recently, however, the Jansankhya Sthirata Kosh (National Population Stabilization Fund) has launched an innovative, confidential call center devoted specifically to disseminating information on topics related to population and reproductive health. Receiving calls mainly from rural parts of the country, call center operators answer a variety of questions regarding sex, fertility, infant and maternal health, and contraceptive use and availability from information provided by five Indian medical hospitals.  Armed with local knowledge, awareness of social norms regarding population issues, and the ability to build a comfortable rapport with callers, call center operators are providing one-of-a-kind services to the Indian public.

There is an unsettled debate about what level of human population is environmentally and agriculturally sustainable at current, or increased, levels of consumption.  Twelve years ago, Joel E. Cohen, wrote a provocative book, entitled, “How Many People Can the Earth Support?” that ratcheted up the debate. More recently, the World Wildlife Fund released the Living Planet Report 2008, which gives an overview of how human activities might be impacting the planet’s natural resource base.

The WWF report asserts that:

1. We are facing an “ecological credit crunch.” At current rates of consumption, we will require two planets by the mid-2030s.

2. While this challenge is enormous, we can reverse current trends through an integrated approach by governments, private sector players, and civil society. Technology transfers, incentives for local innovation, sustainable urban planning, empowerment of women, and access to voluntary family planning can all contribute to achieving long-term sustainability.

From a demographic perspective, this report provides some important insights on the possible relationships between population and sustainability.  According to the Living Planet Index, in just 35 years, the Earth’s wildlife populations have experienced a 33% decline in numbers, largely impacting tropical, terrestrial, dryland and freshwater plant and animal species. This loss is due to a number of factors including habitat loss from agricultural development, exploitation of species, pollution, the rapid growth of invasive species, and climate change. If human demands for natural resource use and infrastructure development increase, more wildlife populations will be at risk of endangerment or extinction, affecting food, water, health, energy security, and frequency and vulnerability to natural disaster.

Population and consumption trends are highlighted in this report. Globally, population and per person consumption is on the rise. While high-income countries contain 15% of the global population, they are responsible for 36% of the global ecological footprint due to consumer demand for natural resources. In middle-income countries, populations are variable; some countries are experiencing slower population growth while the region overall has doubled in population since 1961. Concurrently, per person footprints have also increased by 21%.

The accelerated rate of consumption and production in emerging economies contributes to increasing individual footprints.  In China, rapid increases in population and per person footprints yielded an overall quadrupling of the country’s total ecological footprint.

Overall, middle-income countries are responsible for the largest demand on the Earth’s resources; their consumption patterns account for 39% of humanity’s total footprint. Low-income countries show the most rapid population growth, decreasing biocapacity per person, and the lowest per person ecological footprints in the world.  These trends are shown in the graphs released in the Living Planet Report 2008:

 40WorldIncome.pdf

While many nations consume resources produced within their national boundaries, international trade of natural resources accounts for over 40% of the total global ecological footprint.

The Living Planet Report 2008 raises some compelling questions about our ecological future.  By incorporating demographic data with trends in consumption, trade, and biodiversity, this report recognizes the complexity of the issue and the corresponding need for an integrated approach to the problem.

In the latest fight over the "gag rule," the Bush administration last month stopped providing contraceptives to Marie Stopes International (MSI), a UK-based international family planning provider. While the US does not provide direct monetary assistance to MSI, the organization's extensive network distributes US-funded contraceptives internationally. This ban will impact MSI's outreach efforts in Ghana, Malawi, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe.

The decision to cease coordination efforts with MSI was made after USAID determined that "MSI is the major implementer of the United Nations Population Fund's (UNFPA) family planning program in China." Since 2002, the Bush administration has blocked Congressional support for UNFPA because of its work in China, citing the Kemp-Kasten Amendment, which prohibits US foreign aid to any organization that "supports or participates in the management of a program of coercive abortion or involuntary sterilization".

MSI's Chief Executive Dana Hovig denied that the organization is supporting abortion or sterilization in China. In a recent press release, he claims "To the contrary, MSI is one of the few organizations that has worked over the past decade to increase the availability of voluntary, client-centered family planning services in China."

A number of health service organizations have allied with MSI, including EuroNGOs, Population Action International, Advocates for Action, Asia Pacific Alliance, and the Center for Reproductive Rights. Their statement is located here.

According to the Population Reference Bureau's 2008 Data Sheet, the percentage of married women ages 15-49 using family planning services ranges from 5-60% in the countries impacted by the Administration's ruling. The unmet need for family planning services for spacing births varies: Zimbabwe (8%); Tanzania (15%); Malawi (17%); Ghana (22%); Sierra Leone (24%); Uganda (25%). Family planning services for limiting births also varies: Zimbabwe (5%); Sierra Leone and Tanzania (7%); Malawi (10%); Ghana (12%); Uganda (16%).  Data on contraceptive practices are usually collected for married women. 

Currently, MSI operates 84 clinics in the six affected African countries. In Tanzania and Malawi, MSI provides 20% of total family planning services through static clinics, mobile clinics, rural outreach teams, community volunteers, social marketing, social franchising, work-based initiatives, peer education programs, community based-activities, and refugee/IDP camps.  The State Department says that USAID will continue to "supply the same volume of commodities to these countries and will do everything possible to ensure that its program objectives are accomplished through other partners."

I recently attended a sneak preview of “The Bride Was Seven,” part of the Oxygen Network’s “Who Cares About Girls?” series. This teaser featured Berhane Hewan (“Light for Eve”), an innovative program educating young girls and their parents about voluntary family planning and health effects of child marriage. In the film, Zemenay, a twelve-year old wife of eight years residing in the Amhara region of Ethiopia, spoke openly of the consummation of her marriage prior to her first menstrual cycle. Speakers at the screening included Amy Bucher, Director and Producer; Congresswoman Louise Capps (D-CA); and Congresswoman Betty McCollum (D-MN), who reflected on the global prevalence of child marriage.

Often thought to occur solely in rural parts of developing countries, forced marriages have recently been identified as an issue in the US, UK, and continental Europe. Of the 416 children seized in Texas in April 2008, more than twenty teenage girls were reported to either be expecting or raising children by the age of seventeen. A March 2008 report states that the British Government’s Forced Marriage Unit investigates 250-300 cases per year while up to several thousand more may go unreported. Dr. Nazia Khanum, the author of the report, estimates 3,000 forced marriages take place annually in the UK if underreporting occurs at the same frequency as underreporting for rape and sexual assault. In Norway and Belgium, legislation prohibiting marital rape and forced marriage has been proposed following the publication of studies highlighting the issue. Because evidence of forced child marriage in the US, UK and EU countries is recent and primarily anecdotal, it merits further attention from development, public health, and demographic research communities.

Demographic data from many developing countries and emerging economies highlight disturbing rates of child marriage. Estimates from the International Center for Research on Women indicate that 51 million girls overseas are married and under 18 years of age; an additionally hundred million more girls will be wed in the next decade if current trends continue. Geographically, child marriage occurs most frequently in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and the Middle East. In the Amhara region of Ethiopia, almost 50% of girls are married by the age of fourteen. Child and teenage brides exhibit an array of physical and emotional health effects, including lowered self-esteem and increased risks of maternal death, infant mortality, obstetric fistula, and sexually transmitted diseases.

Despite these worrisome statistics, though, there is demographic evidence of marriage age increasing in the Middle East and northern Africa. A 2005 Population Reference Bureau report highlights sharp declines in rates of teenage marriage in Kuwait, Libya, and the United Arab Emirates in the last thirty years. In Morocco, a fatwa permitting child marriage has resulted in an official government inquiry questioning the practice; marriage under the age of 18 is prohibited in Morocco. While teen marriage is still prevalent in a number of countries, rates have fallen as the age of marriage has increased in a number of countries.

School Girls Unite, composed of young girls from around the world, produced a video petition to Congress to place a human face on child marriage. In July 2007, Congresswoman Betty McCollum introduced H.R. 3175, the International Protecting Girls by Preventing Marriage Act, to the House of Representatives; a Senate bill, S 1998, was introduced in August 2007 by Sen. Richard Durbin (D-IL).   The bill would authorize $25 million between FY2008 and FY 2012 for community-based activities that encourage communities to address practices that promote child marriage.  No action is expected in this Congress, but the issue will likely be revisited in the 111^th Congress.

To learn more about child brides, tune into “Who Cares About Girls?” on the Oxygen Network on October 9.