Population and Energy

Key Facts & Trends

Consumption of fossil fuels has increased steadily in recent decades, some of it driven by rising standards of living, but much of the increased demand stems from population growth.

 

  • Population growth is intensifying the demand for—and consumption of—nonrenewable energy sources such as oil, coal and natural gas. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that by 2030 non-OECD Asia will account for 43 percent of the overall increase in world consumption of oil and liquid fuels, with projected increases of 6.5 million barrels per day from 2004 to 2015 and another 8.5 million barrels per day from 2015 to 2030. 
  • In China, where population has grown by more than 50 percent in the past 40 years, the demand for oil is growing at 6-7 percent a year. In India, where the population is expected to grow from 1.1 billion today to 1.8 billion by 2050, consumption of oil jumped by over 60 percent between 1995 and 2005. The population of the United States, the largest consumer of oil in the world, is expected to increase from 300 million in 2006 to 420 million by 2050.
  • Because of expanding population, global per capital production of oil actually peaked nearly 40 years ago. Now, a growing number of energy analysts are projecting that absolute amount of oil produced every year in the world is likely to reach a peak sometime in the next two decades. A small but growing number of experts predict that the world is already at or near “peak oil.” T. Boone Pickens, the Texas oil billionaire, predicts that global oil production will never exceed current levels, an estimated 87 million barrels a day.
  • Worldwatch Institute reports that oil production is already in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil-producing countries. Of the largest 21 oil fields in the world, about nine are already in decline, including major fields in Mexico and Kuwait.
     
     
     

Policy Implications

In recent decades global oil production has risen to meet the increased demand, but that may be changing with the depletion of major oil fields.

  • If global oil production peaks in the next few years, it means that any future increase in demand for oil will be have to be met by either higher oil prices or expanded production of biomass and other alternative liquid fuels.
  • If the price of oil rises too fast, it could trigger a global recession. 
  • Rising demand for oil also makes the U.S. more vulnerable to a major supply disruption like the Arab oil embargo of 1973.  With most of the world’s oil fields producing at maximum capacity, a significant drop in oil production anywhere in the world could result in another big jump in oil prices.
  • If the rising global demand for energy is to be met, it will require a rapid increase in renewable energy sources.  Currently, modern technologies like geothermal, wind, solar, and marine energy together produce less than 1% of total world energy demand.