Population and Food

Key Facts & Trends

  • World grain reserves are at their lowest levels in decades, causing grain and other food prices to soar to record highs. Prices of some grains have more than doubled in the past 18 months.
  • Josette Sheeran, the Executive Director of the UN’s World Food Programme, calls the current food crisis a “silent tsunami.”
  • Food riots and protests have already erupted in more than a dozen nations and the World Bank says a total of 33 nations are at risk of food-related strife.
  • Robert Zoellick, the president of the World Bank, estimates that 100 million people are being driven deeper into poverty as a result of recent food price increases.  He has called for a “New Deal” to address the problem.
  • Global population growth, along with climate change and the diversion of farmland to biomass production, are contributing to food inflation. 
  • World population is increasing by about 70 million people a year.  Over the next 42 years, global population is projected to grow from 6.6 billion to 9.3 billion, a 40 percent increase.
  • According to the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), there are currently 37 nations that are listed as “Countries in Crisis Requiring External Assistance.” The population of these 37 nations, currently 1.1 billion, is expected to rise to 1.5 billion by 2025 and 2.0 billion by 2050.
  • Changing diets in developing nations are contributing to the growing demand for food. As incomes rise, diets change; consumers demand more meat products, which, in turn, increases the consumption of grains. It takes 7-8 pounds of grain to produce a pound of beef, and 3-4 pounds of grain to produce a pound of pork.
  • The World Bank estimates that the middle class will triple by 2030, rising from 400 million in 2007 to 1.2 billion.  Other estimates are even higher.
  • Global consumption of meat is expected to double by 2020. the World Bank estimates that total food consumption will double by 2030.

Policy Implications

  • The food crisis could undo recent progress in reducing global poverty.  World Bank President Robert Zoellick says that the current food crisis could mean “seven lost years” in the fight against worldwide poverty.
  • The current food crisis also endangers progress on the UN’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).  The UN warns that higher food prices could increase the depth and incidence of hunger, while also leading to a decline in school attendance and health status.
  • Unless is something is done to boost food production, international relief agencies are warning that more food protests and rioting are likely. Some of that violence is likely to erupt in nations deemed of crucial importance to U.S. strategic interests.
  • The World Food Programme recently announced that it was providing food relief to an additional 2.5 million Afghans who no longer have adequate food budgets.  In Pakistan, President Musharraf has issued dire warning about the political instability that could flow from flour shortages and higher food prices. North Korea is reportedly on the verge of famine, and many observers believe that the Philippines could be severely impacted by food riots. 
  • The current food crisis is not a localized crisis. Rising food prices could endanger hundreds of millions of people spread around the world.  Many of the affected will be living in urban slums. Emergency food shipments alone will not correct the problem; international relief agencies will have to devise new strategies for fighting global hunger, including vouchers and cash subsidies.
  • If global population reaches 9.3 billion people by 2050, as currently projected by the UN’s medium population variant, global grain production will have to feed an additional 2.5 billion people--a 40 percent increase.   
  • if global diets continue to change, rising meat consumption could vastly increase the amount of additional grain production that will be required to feed the world’s population.
  • Any increase in global grain production will have to overcome several key obstacles, including the rising cost of fuel, fertilizer and farmland. 
  • In many areas of the world, particularly Africa and South Asia, water scarcity may hamper efforts to boost farm output. The effects of climate change (drought, flooding, and loss of water runoff due to the melting of the glaciers) will also have to be overcome.