Population and Instability

Key Facts & Trends

Population pressures and other demographic forces can make “weak” or “failing” states more vulnerable to internal conflict and social disintegration. The “Failed States Index 2007,” assembled by Foreign Policy magazine and the Fund for Peace, lists “demographic pressures” as one of the major social, political and military factors affecting the stability of developing countries.

 

It specifically cites “pressure derived from high population density relative to food supply and other life-sustaining resources,” and “pressures from skewed population distributions, such as a ‘youth or age bulge’,” as major demographic risk factors.


The “Failed States Index 2007” ranked demographic pressures in 177 countries on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the most severe. Significant finding from the 2007 survey include:

  • All of the 20 nations identified as most susceptible to instability had significant demographic pressures.  None of them received a score below “8” for demographic pressures. The top five nations had scores above “9.”
  • Sudan, the nation that topped the Failed States Index in 2007, received a score of 9.2 for demographic pressures.
  • Iraq, the 2nd ranked nation in the Index, received a score of 9.0 for demographic pressures.
  • Zimbabwe, which ranked 4th, received a score of 9.7 for demographic pressures.
  • Pakistan, which ranked 12th, received a score of 8.2 for demographic pressures.

Policy Implications

In an increasingly unstable world, demographic trends pose a significant challenge to policymakers.

 

  • The instability that can result from severe demographic pressures contributes to civil unrest and even genocide. Many experts cite population pressures relative to food and water supplies as a major cause of the genocidal fighting that has erupted in areas like Rwanda and Darfur.
  • “Weak” or “failing” states can serve as a breeding ground for terrorists. Afghanistan and Pakistan both suffer from severe “youth bulges.”  In Afghanistan, 32 percent of the population is between 10 and 24; in Pakistan it’s 34 percent.
  • Unstable countries, particularly those with significant demographic pressures, are especially vulnerable to environmental catastrophe. Countries like Bangladesh, Egypt, and Indonesia are at high risk.
  • Population pressure and food scarcity can contribute to the formation of “rogue” nations—like North Korea—that threaten world peace.