Population and Water

Key Facts & Trends

Population growth is steadily increasing the demand for fresh water leading to shortages in many parts of the world.

 

  • According to the International Water Management Institute, a fifth of the world’s people, more than 1.2 billion, live in areas of physical water scarcity, meaning they lack enough water to meet current demand. An additional 1.6 billion people live in water-scarce basins, where human capacity or financial resources are likely to be insufficient to develop adequate water resources.
  • Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrologic cycle. If so, areas prone to high pressure and droughts may experience longer, dryer periods, while wetter areas will be susceptible to torrential rains and greater flooding. Drought conditions could worsen in areas like Southern Europe, the Mideast, North Africa, Australia, and the U.S. Southwest.
  • Global warming is melting the glaciers that serve as the principal source of water for many areas of the world. The disappearance of glaciers in the Himalayas-Hindu Kush and in China’s Xinjiang region could dramatically shrink the available water supply for many people living in Asia.  But even North America and Europe could be impacted as glaciers recede in the Rockies and the Alps.
  • IWMI estimates by 2025, 1.8 billion people will live in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity, including most countries in the Middle East and North Africa. By 2025, Pakistan, South Africa, and large parts of India and China will be experiencing significant water scarcity.
     
     
     

Policy Implications

If population growth trends continue and drought conditions persist or worsen in the decades ahead, water scarcity could pose a major challenge for policymakers worldwide.

  • Countries that experience severe water resources may not be able to maintain their current level of per capita food production from irrigated agriculture—even at higher levels of irrigation efficiency—while also meeting the demand for water for domestic and industrial uses. Water, as a consequence, may have to be transferred out of agriculture into other sectors, making these countries more dependent on imported food and lowering global food production.
  • In some areas of the world, water shortages could increase the number of environmental refugees, as water shortages may force people to move to another region or country.
  • In the Middle East—where Iraq, Syria and Turkey compete for the waters of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers—water shortages could increase the risk of conflict.  Water disputes could even pose a barrier to achieving a Middle East peace settlement.
  • Water scarcity may also increase the chance of genocide and internal conflict, as it has already in places like Darfur and Somalia.